“Nobody knows who to talk to,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he portrayed as both chaos and opportunity inside Iran’s leadership. “But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly.”
His remarks come as the U.S. claims it is engaged in talks with a “top” Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies that negotiations are taking place.
The question now is not just whether talks are happening, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver. With U.S.-Israel strikes on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be operating less like a centralized theocracy and more like a wartime system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.
Here’s who matters now.
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The IRGC: The Real Power Behind the State
Across intelligence assessments and recent reporting, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s political system.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.–based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend.
“No doubt both the 12-Day War and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leadership,” he said. “But they have also expedited the trend inherent in Iranian politics—the dominance of the security forces and the rise of the IRGC.”
“Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker and functions more as a national security rump state,” he added.
“It shouldn’t particularly preoccupy Washington who is or isn’t offering negotiations,” Ben Taleblu said. “Washington’s main focus should be achieving a military victory that leads to a political win. That does not come from working with the IRGC, but by defeating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces most arrayed against them in Iran—the Iranian people.”
Iran Command Center: Supreme National Security Council
If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holds the power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which it is exercised.
The Supreme National Security Council is Iran’s top forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and government officials under the authority of the Supreme Leader. It was established after the 1979 revolution and has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to wartime operations.
Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, as secretary of the council. This reinforces its central role in coordinating military and political decisions, Reuters reported Tuesday.
A Middle Eastern official familiar with the system described the council’s structure.
“Right now, the power is in the hands of the IRGC,” the source said. “The Supreme National Security Council makes the decisions, of course, with the backing of the majority of IRGC commanders.”
nominal Supreme Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei
Formally, Iran’s system centers on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, but his actual grip on power remains uncertain.
Khamenei inherited the position’s sweeping authority following his father’s death, but “lacks the automatic authority enjoyed by his father,” the Middle Eastern official said.
Moreover, he has not appeared publicly since taking power and has only issued written statements. This has raised questions about both his health and his ability to govern, after he was reportedly injured in the initial Feb. 28 U.S.–Israeli strikes that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested his role may currently be limited: “For the time being, since Mojtaba has been injured, it seems he’s a hologram and not holding power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will be involved in ruling Iran. He is not just a figurehead. In any case, for now, control of Iran is in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).”
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The key figure in Trump’s remarks: Ghalibaf of Iran
Trump’s statement that he is speaking to a “top person” has focused attention on one name in particular: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The White House is quietly exploring Ghalibaf as a potential interlocutor and even a possible future leader, according to Axios.
Ghalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and current parliament speaker, represents a hybrid figure in the system, bridging military credentials with political authority.
He was one of the key security figures involved in the crackdown on student protests in July 1999 and has run for president four times since 2005.
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Ghalibaf is expected to meet U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, as early as the end of the week.
Ben Taleblu said: “Those who see the rise of someone like Ghalibaf, an IRGC veteran, as having extended power outside his traditional civilian role, have overlooked how personality—not profession—has driven Iranian politics for decades. I would also say that those who worry about the IRGC backgrounds of the Supreme National Security Council may have missed the fact that the past few Secretaries—Shamkhani, Larijani, and Ahmadian—all also had IRGC backgrounds.”
At the same time, Ghalibaf has publicly denied engaging in talks with the United States. No direct confirmation of negotiations has been provided by either side.
Araghchi: The Diplomat Carrying Messages
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains one of the most visible figures internationally.
Reuters reported that if talks were to take place, Araghchi would likely be part of the Iranian delegation alongside Ghalibaf.
Analysts caution, however, that his role is limited. He may serve as a channel for communication but does not set policy independently.
Strategic decisions—particularly those related to war and negotiations—are still shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader security establishment.
The Wider Power Circle: Generals, Clerics and Enforcers
Beyond the headline figures, a broader group of officials continues to shape Iran’s direction.
These include Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ahmad Vahidi; Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani; naval commander Alireza Tangsiri; Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei; President Masoud Pezeshkian; and senior clerical and political figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.
Each represents a different pillar of the system: military power, regional proxy operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression, and religious legitimacy.
Together, they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient governing network.
Despite internal divisions, Iran’s leadership remains united around one core objective: the survival of the regime.
Kuperwasser described the split: “There are the more pragmatic elites, like Araghchi, Rouhani, and Zarif. There are also the hardliners, who have usually held the upper hand. But they are united on one issue — that the regime should survive and stay in power.”
